Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore’s daytime peak at Changi Airport on 6 August will be the number that settles this market, using the highest temperature recorded there by Wunderground for that calendar day. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the specific outcome occurs, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; here, the “outcome” is the temperature band that contains the day’s maximum reading. The market is currently priced at **0% for YES**, which means traders see the specified band as extremely unlikely, but the actual resolution depends on the final reported airport reading rather than a citywide average or forecast.[1]

The historical framing is straightforward: Singapore is close to the equator, so August temperatures are usually stable and warm, with typical daytime highs around the low 30s Celsius. Forecast services for Singapore in August commonly show highs near 31–34°C, while Wunderground’s own Changi Airport August outlook shows highs clustered in the mid-30s Fahrenheit equivalent range, reinforcing that small differences of 1°C can matter for which band wins. Recent market commentary on this event has also pointed to 31°C and 32°C as the main contenders, which is consistent with the city’s limited day-to-day temperature spread.[1][2][4][10]

For traders, the main catalysts are weather updates rather than scheduled announcements. The key dependencies are cloud cover, passing showers, and monsoon-driven wind and rain, because these can trim the afternoon peak by a degree or two; Singapore’s official meteorological updates note that August sits within the Southwest Monsoon period, when drier spells can alternate with localised thundery showers.[11] The practical cut-off is the settlement rule itself: revisions to the temperature reading are counted only until the first datapoint for the following day is published, so late data corrections can still matter if they arrive before that boundary.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.