Highest temperature in Taipei on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is whether Taipei Songshan Airport records a **highest temperature** on 8 August, with the winning temperature band determined by Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary “Day High & Low” figure. In prediction-market terms, a **YES share** pays out if the market resolves to the stated outcome band; a **NO share** wins if it does not.

The current **0% YES** reading suggests traders think that exact band is effectively unavailable or extremely unlikely under the market’s current pricing. That is best read as a snapshot, not a forecast with certainty: August in Taipei is usually hot, humid and rain-prone, with typical highs around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and occasional spikes much higher, including past August extremes well above 38°C[2][3][7][11]. Recent forecast services for 8 August point to a warm but unsettled day, with rain or thunderstorms possible and daytime highs in roughly the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, which can cap temperature upside if cloud and rain arrive early[8][9][14].

For traders, the key catalysts are the evolving local forecast through the day, especially the timing of rain bands, thunderstorms and any clearing that allows stronger heating before midday. Because the market settles on the **highest observed reading** in the station log, a brief hot spike can matter more than the headline daily forecast, while late cloudburst or persistent rain can keep the top reading lower than expected. The practical dependency is simple: track Weather Underground’s station observations closely, because those entries control resolution if there is any discrepancy with the summary section.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.