Highest temperature in Taipei on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the selected outcome occurs, while a NO share wins if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the implied YES outcome, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specific range tied to that share.

Historical July temperatures in Taipei typically exceed 30°C, with frequent peaks reaching 35°C or higher due to the region’s tropical monsoon climate and urban heat effects. The current frontrunner outcome of 35°C at 100% probability aligns with this pattern, indicating the market views lower ranges like 28°C or below as highly unlikely [1]. This strong consensus reflects decades of weather data showing that midsummer in Taipei rarely dips below 30°C, making the 0% crowd-implied probability for lower ranges consistent with established climatic norms.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from Wunderground, the official resolution source, particularly for shifts in cloud cover, precipitation, or humidity that could suppress peak temperatures. While July is consistently hot, rare rain events or unusual cloud patterns can temporarily lower temperatures, though such deviations are uncommon in Taipei’s summer [3]. No scheduled announcements or policy changes affect this outcome; the sole dependency is the actual meteorological reading at the specified station on the settlement date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.