Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the peak temperature will land within a specific bracket—for instance, 35–36°C or 36–37°C—whilst a NO share bets against that outcome. The settlement will draw from historical weather data logged at the airport's official monitoring station, making this a straightforward factual resolution tied to a single, verifiable measurement.

Taipei's July temperatures are remarkably consistent. Over the past decade, daily highs in late July have clustered between 33°C and 37°C, with readings above 38°C occurring in fewer than 5% of cases. The 0% implied probability on the current market suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall outside whatever range this particular YES option covers. Without visibility on which specific temperature bracket the market is testing, the low probability likely reflects either an unusually narrow range or a threshold well above historical norms for that date.

Taiwan's Central Weather Administration issues forecasts and heat advisories throughout summer, typically released five to ten days ahead. Traders should monitor late-July weather models from mid-July onwards, particularly any alerts flagging exceptional heat or unusual atmospheric patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by the Japan Meteorological Agency, can influence East Asian summer temperatures, though their impact on a single day remains marginal. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 25 July, giving traders until that point to adjust positions based on morning forecasts and early-day temperature readings.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.