Highest temperature in Taipei on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the highest temperature reached at Taipei Songshan Airport on 31 July, with the market resolving on the Celsius range that contains that day’s peak reading from Wunderground. For newcomers, a **YES** share pays out if the final result falls inside the listed range, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; here, the market is effectively a bet on which temperature band the day’s maximum will land in.

A 0% crowd-implied probability for YES suggests traders see that exact range as extremely unlikely, but it does not mean the temperature will be cool. Taipei’s late-July climate is typically hot, and published climate guides put average July highs around 33°C, with records above 38°C in recent years and an all-time city high of 39.7°C noted by Focus Taiwan in 2020[4][10][16]. On the day itself, Focus Taiwan reported that Taipei topped 36°C for a third straight day, after the Central Weather Administration issued an orange heat advisory[1]. That makes this market more about the precise bracket than about whether the city will be warm.

Traders should watch two things: the local temperature trajectory through the afternoon, and the timing of the settlement source update on Wunderground’s history page for Taipei Songshan Airport. A late-day spike can matter if the maximum is recorded shortly before the market closes, and the final result depends only on the station’s highest observed temperature, not on forecasts or city-wide averages. Fresh heat advisories or cloud cover changes can still move expectations intraday, but the only outcome that counts is the recorded peak at the airport station[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.