Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against defined ranges. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome falls within a specified bracket; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. Here, traders are betting on which temperature range will contain that day's peak reading, with the 0% probability suggesting the crowd currently sees no meaningful chance of the market resolving to any particular range—an unusual state that typically reflects either extreme uncertainty or a technical issue with how the market is framed.

Tokyo's August temperatures are remarkably consistent. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that daily highs in mid-August typically cluster between 32–35°C, with readings above 36°C occurring in roughly one-third of years during heat waves and readings below 31°C rare but possible during cooler spells. The settlement window closes at midday on the resolution date, meaning only observations recorded before noon will count towards the final figure, which differs from typical daily high measurements taken across a full 24-hour cycle.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August, which will provide 10-day outlooks for the Kanto region. Pacific high-pressure systems and potential typhoon activity in late July or early August could shift conditions significantly. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a data-source dependency worth verifying; discrepancies between reporting methods have occasionally caused settlement disputes in weather markets.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.