Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specified range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. This market uses Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as its authoritative source, prioritising that over summary figures, which occasionally diverge. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, giving traders a narrow window after the day's peak temperatures have typically occurred.

Tokyo's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical highs clustering between 34–37°C at Haneda. The Japan Meteorological Agency's records show that mid-August typically marks the tail end of the summer heat peak before autumn patterns begin to establish. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either confident the actual high will fall outside the specified range, or the market has attracted limited participation. Given Tokyo's stable summer climate and the specificity of Haneda's measurement protocols, historical precedent offers a reliable baseline for assessing which temperature bands are most probable.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts and any tropical weather systems that might affect the region in early August 2026. Typhoon activity, whilst less common in mid-August than earlier in the season, can suppress temperatures significantly. Conversely, high-pressure systems anchored over the region typically drive temperatures toward the upper end of the historical range. Real-time weather modelling from late July onwards will provide the most actionable signals for adjusting positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.