Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s daytime maximum at Haneda Airport will decide the market, and the winning range is the one that contains the highest temperature recorded there before the noon UTC settlement cut-off. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if that specific outcome happens, while a **NO** share wins if it does not; here, traders are effectively pricing which temperature band Tokyo’s official daily high will land in. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market is treating that exact band as very unlikely, not impossible, and the final reading will come from the Wunderground history page for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station.

That low price should be read against Tokyo’s normal August heat, which commonly produces highs around the low 30s Celsius and can spike higher during hot spells. Recent August observations from Japan’s Meteorological Agency show Tokyo-area highs in the mid-30s Celsius at several stations, while wider seasonal guides put Tokyo’s August average maximum near 31°C with high humidity, a pattern that supports frequent moves between adjacent ranges rather than a single fixed number. Historical temperature markets on Tokyo have also tended to resolve in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, so the practical question is often whether the day stays around seasonal norms or pushes into a hotter bracket.

Traders should watch the local forecast, any heat advisories, and the timing of sea-breeze or thunderstorm activity, because small shifts in cloud cover and wind can change the day’s maximum by a degree or two. Tokyo’s official daily high is usually set by late afternoon local time, but this market closes on the Wunderground reading available before 12:00 UTC, so any late-morning warming or cooling matters directly. The key dependency is simple: if Haneda’s observed maximum is still rising as the settlement window approaches, the odds across nearby temperature bands can move quickly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.