Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s hottest reading on 24 July will be the figure that matters for this market, measured at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station and settled against the highest temperature recorded there during the day. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the market’s exact outcome occurs, while **NO** means it does not; here, the current 0% YES price implies traders see that specific temperature bucket as extremely unlikely, not impossible. Tokyo in July is typically hot and humid, with average summer temperatures around 25°C to 30°C and frequent readings above 30°C, so the main question is not whether it will be warm, but how far the day’s peak will extend.[4][5]

Historically, July in Tokyo is shaped by the end of the rainy season and the start of the most oppressive heat, with typhoons beginning to appear in eastern Japan later in the month. Comparable weather write-ups note that July is generally hot and humid, with about 1–2 typhoons passing through eastern coastal Japan in mid to late July, usually bringing short-lived rain and wind rather than a direct strike on Tokyo.[1] That context helps explain why a very low implied probability can still coexist with a wide range of possible outcomes: the market is not pricing the *average* July climate, but the chance that the *single highest reading* lands in one precise range.

Traders should watch the local forecast for Tokyo Haneda, especially overnight and early-morning updates, because the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC and the final print is determined by the day’s maximum, not the afternoon temperature at one snapshot. Heat advisories can be a useful catalyst, and Japan is already in a severe summer heat episode: Reuters reported on 23 July that the country’s heatwave had been dubbed a “disaster”, with hospitalisations and deaths increasing.[2] For this market, the practical drivers are straightforward: incoming sunshine, sea-breeze effects near the airport, cloud cover, rainfall, and any late-day storm system that caps the peak.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.