Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share on any given range means you believe that day's peak temperature will land there; a NO share means it won't. The settlement source is historical weather data from Weather Underground, which logs hourly readings at the airport's official weather station. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to all ranges, suggesting either incomplete market formation or an expectation that the actual temperature will fall outside the offered brackets.

Tokyo's late July climate is characterised by intense summer heat and high humidity. Historical records show daily highs in late July typically range between 32°C and 36°C, with occasional spikes above 37°C during heat waves. The 2023 summer saw multiple days exceeding 35°C in Tokyo, and the Japan Meteorological Agency has documented a warming trend in urban areas over the past two decades. Understanding this baseline helps calibrate whether the market's offered ranges align with seasonal norms or represent outlier scenarios.

The key variable affecting 28 July 2026 will be whether a Pacific high-pressure system dominates the region or whether monsoon moisture and cloud cover moderate temperatures. The Japan Meteorological Agency typically issues extended forecasts 10–14 days ahead; traders should monitor their seasonal outlooks and any issued advisories as mid-July approaches. Real-time atmospheric patterns in the week preceding the date will be the most reliable indicator, as short-range forecasting (3–7 days out) becomes substantially more accurate for specific daily maxima.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.