Highest temperature in Toronto on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 7 August 2026**, and in this market a **YES** share pays out if the outcome lands in the listed temperature range, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not. The market rules are important here: settlement is based on Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, not the summary “Day High & Low” figure, so traders should focus on the station record rather than the headline display.[2]

A **0% YES** price implies the crowd currently sees that temperature band as effectively impossible, but that should be read cautiously rather than literally. Toronto’s August climate is typically warm, with long-run daytime highs around the mid-20s Celsius and occasional days reaching the upper 20s or low 30s, so a single-day peak can still move meaningfully around the monthly average.[1][15][20] Recent comparable forecasts for early August also pointed to warm, unsettled conditions, including reports of showers and humidex, which can shape intraday highs without guaranteeing a record-setting reading.[5][19]

For traders, the key catalysts are the hourly evolution of the local forecast and any rain or cloud cover that limits afternoon heating, plus wind and humidity, which can affect the perceived warmth but not the settlement value itself.[13][14] Weather Underground’s Toronto page showed a sunny evening reading after the market date, underscoring that the actual result is only knowable from the station’s archived observations once the day is complete.[2] Because the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 7 August, the critical question is not the evening weather in Toronto, but the maximum temperature captured earlier in the local day.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.