Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the day's peak temperature lands within a specific bracket (the exact range is determined by how the market was constructed); a NO share pays out if it falls outside that bracket. The settlement hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table for Wellington Intl Airport Station, prioritising that source over any summary figures that might differ.

Wellington's August climate sits firmly in the Southern Hemisphere winter, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 10 and 14 degrees Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an exceptionally warm day—one that would exceed the upper bound of whatever temperature range this market specifies. August records for Wellington show occasional warm outliers driven by föhn-like conditions or early spring warmth, though such days remain uncommon during the month. Comparable markets on winter-month temperatures in Wellington have historically resolved toward cooler outcomes, reflecting the season's baseline conditions.

Traders monitoring this market should track New Zealand's long-range weather forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly any official MetService outlooks issued in late July. Southern Ocean pressure systems and their timing relative to 12 August will be the primary driver of actual conditions. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as persistent high-pressure systems or northerly flow—could shift outcomes materially. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 12 August, giving traders access to morning observations from Wellington before final resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.