Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 3 August, measured in degrees Celsius and mapped to a temperature range for settlement. In this kind of prediction market, a **YES** share pays out if the named outcome happens and a **NO** share pays out if it does not, so prices are a live read on how likely traders think each outcome is.

The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** is consistent with Wellington’s August climate profile, which is usually cool and fairly stable rather than warm. Typical August daytime highs are around 12°C, with average highs near 10–12.9°C depending on the source, while historic August observations cited by weather-history sites commonly sit in the low teens and rarely approach the upper teens.[4][5][6][13][16] That makes a high-end range outcome much less plausible than a cooler band, especially at an exposed coastal airport site where sea breezes can suppress daytime warming.[8]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s actual weather pattern rather than any scheduled announcement: cloud cover, wind direction, rain bands, and whether a brief northerly flow reaches the airport before the settlement window closes. Wellington’s weather can change quickly, but on a winter date the broader seasonal baseline remains the key anchor, and historical records show even strong heat events in the city are unusual and typically linked to exceptional synoptic setups rather than routine conditions.[7][8][18] Because the market settles off Wunderground’s daily history page for Wellington Intl Airport, the most relevant live inputs are the observed maximum temperature and the timing of any late-morning or midday warming before 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.