Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract settles on the **highest air temperature recorded at Wellington Intl Airport Station** during the day, so a YES share is a bet that the final reading falls inside the market’s specified temperature range, while NO means it does not. Because the settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page, traders should think in terms of the day’s actual airport observation rather than a city-wide average or a forecast headline.

For context, Wellington in August is normally cool rather than warm: recent forecast and climate pages cluster around daytime highs near **11–13°C**, with overnight lows much lower, and some outlets show today’s forecast around **12°C** or **13°C** at most. That helps explain why a **0% YES** price is notable: it implies the crowd sees the relevant range as effectively unreachable from the expected weather set-up, not merely uncommon. New users of prediction markets can read this as a probability of an event outcome, not as a weather forecast in itself; the market price reflects where traders think the final airport maximum will land relative to the listed bands.

The main catalysts are straightforward weather drivers: the day’s temperature peak, the timing of any northerly breeze or rain bands, and whether sunshine briefly lifts the airport reading above the broader forecast range. Wellington forecasts for today mention breezy conditions and showers in some sources, while others show generally cool, partly cloudy weather with wind remaining a factor; that mix tends to cap daytime maxima even when conditions are dry. The key dependency is the airport station itself, since a warmer pocket elsewhere in the city will not matter if it is not reflected in the Wellington Intl Airport observation used for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.