Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the chosen outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to any YES outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded.

Historical July data for Wellington shows the city typically experiences cool, damp conditions with average highs rarely exceeding 15°C, often hovering between 10°C and 14°C [1]. The current frontrunner on the broader market is 12°C at 100% probability, suggesting traders expect temperatures to align closely with this seasonal norm rather than spike unusually high [2]. This historical consistency explains why the market has priced in a 0% chance for extreme deviations, as mid-summer heatwaves in Wellington are uncommon and usually brief.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, which logs hourly temperatures for the Wellington Intl Airport Station [2]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for this date, the prevailing south-south-westerly winds at 24 mph and 72% humidity currently observed suggest continued cloud cover and limited solar heating [1]. Any sudden shift in wind direction or a drop in cloud cover could act as a catalyst for a temperature rise, though current conditions point toward stable, cool weather throughout the settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.