Highest temperature in Wellington on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

At Wellington International Airport, the market settles on the day’s **highest recorded temperature** in degrees Celsius, using Wunderground’s history page for 23 July 2026. In simple terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final reported maximum falls inside the contract’s specified temperature range, while a **NO** share pays if it does not.

A 0% crowd-implied probability for YES means traders are treating that range as effectively unreachable, which usually happens when the contract’s bracket is far from the expected weather outcome or the market is thin and pricing is extreme. For a winter date in Wellington, historical reading matters because airport temperatures in late July are typically cool rather than warm, so the key question is whether the day’s maximum can climb into the contract’s band at all.

The main things to watch are the airport forecast, any sudden wind change or northerly flow, and the timing of the daily maximum before the settlement cutoff at 12:00 UTC. Because the market resolves to the *highest* temperature logged on the day, even a brief spell of brighter, less windy weather can matter more than the morning low; traders should therefore focus on the intraday forecast trend rather than just the first reading.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.