Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s airport will register the day’s **highest temperature** on 24 July, and this market resolves to the Celsius band that contains that peak reading. A **YES share** pays out if the event falls within the listed range attached to that contract, while a **NO share** pays out if it does not; here, the settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page for Wellington Intl Airport Station. July is normally one of Wellington’s cooler, wetter months, with typical daytime highs around **11–12°C** and frequent rain, so the market is essentially about whether the airport reaches a comparatively mild winter high rather than anything extreme.[1][5]

The current crowd-implied **0% YES** suggests traders see the specified temperature band as very unlikely, which is easiest to read against the city’s winter baseline rather than against daily swings. NIWA’s May–July outlook said temperatures across much of New Zealand were about equally likely to be near average or below average, with occasional cold snaps possible, while Wellington-specific July climate summaries point to highs clustered near 11–12°C rather than sustained warmth.[4][1][5] In other words, prediction markets often price the narrowest range around the most likely weather outcome, so a zero per cent quote usually reflects either a very high threshold band or a contract structure that is far from the current forecast.

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-term forecast updates for Wellington, any shift in wind direction or cloud cover that changes daytime warming, and the actual Wunderground station observation sequence through the afternoon local time. BBC Weather currently shows Wellington around **10°C** with steady pressure, while AccuWeather’s hourly outlook is in the same cool range, which is consistent with a modest winter maximum unless conditions brighten materially.[2][3] Because settlement uses the airport station’s recorded daily high, the key dependency is the station report itself, not the broader city forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.