Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is whether Wellington Airport’s hottest reading on 31 July 2026 lands inside the chosen Celsius range, as recorded on Wunderground’s daily history page for Wellington Intl Airport Station. In a prediction market, a **YES** share pays out if the event happens and a **NO** share pays out if it does not; prices are the crowd’s rough estimate of that outcome. With the implied probability at **0% YES**, the market is effectively saying traders see the target temperature band as very unlikely under the current outlook.

That reading should be framed against Wellington’s late-July climate, which is usually cool and changeable rather than warm. Forecasts available late on 30 July point to a Friday high around 11–12°C, with patchy or light rain and modest winds, which is consistent with typical winter conditions in Wellington rather than a spike into unusually high ranges.[1][6][7] Historical July data for Wellington also clusters around low-teens daytime highs, so the main task for traders is not to predict a broad seasonal shift but to judge whether a single airport observation can briefly overshoot the forecast.

The key catalysts are the overnight and Friday-morning forecast updates before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, because even a small change in cloud cover, wind or rain timing can affect the day’s maximum temperature. The market resolves on the *highest* temperature recorded that day at the airport station, so the relevant dependency is the official hourly observation history on Wunderground rather than a citywide forecast headline. Traders should watch for updated local forecasts and any change in rain timing, since those are the main short-term drivers of the daytime peak.[1][5][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.