Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome lands in the specified range; a NO share pays the inverse. Here, traders are essentially wagering whether the day's peak temperature—measured via the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures—will exceed certain thresholds. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be awaiting clarification on which temperature band is being priced, or reflects extreme confidence that the actual high will fall outside all listed ranges.

Wuhan's August climate is among China's most extreme. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs routinely exceed 35°C during mid-August, with several years recording peaks above 38°C. The city ranks amongst the hottest in China during summer months, driven by subtropical monsoon patterns and urban heat-island effects. August 2023 saw Wuhan reach 40.9°C on the 13th; comparable periods suggest the 11th typically experiences similarly intense conditions. This historical context indicates that lower temperature ranges should command substantially higher probabilities than the current 0% reading implies.

Weather forecasting accuracy for single-day temperature extremes typically degrades beyond ten days. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and regional heat advisories as August 2026 approaches. Atmospheric patterns—including potential typhoon activity or monsoon shifts—can materially alter expected highs. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 11 August, meaning real-time observations from Wuhan Tianhe will determine the outcome with minimal opportunity for late adjustments.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.