Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the peak temperature lands within a specific bracket (for instance, 35–36 °C); a NO share bets it falls elsewhere. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, making the outcome verifiable and independent of forecasts or opinion.

Wuhan's summer climate is among China's most extreme. July typically sees daily highs between 32 and 37 °C, with occasional peaks above 38 °C during heat waves. The city's position in the Yangtze River valley traps humid air, intensifying perceived heat stress. Records from the past decade show considerable year-to-year variation: some Julys have remained moderate, whilst others have produced sustained temperatures above 35 °C for weeks. The current 0% crowd probability on the YES outcome suggests either that the specific temperature range offered is considered unlikely, or that insufficient liquidity has formed around this particular bracket.

Traders monitoring this market should track China's meteorological forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña patterns developing in the months prior to July 2026, as these influence regional summer temperatures. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength—typically peaking in June and July—will be a key driver of whether Wuhan experiences a cooler, wetter spell or a drier, hotter one. Historical precedent indicates that late-June atmospheric conditions offer reasonable predictive power for mid-July temperatures in the region.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.