Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature of that day in degrees Celsius. A prediction market allows traders to buy YES or NO shares on whether that minimum temperature will fall within a specified range. Buying a YES share means you believe the day's low will land in that bracket; a NO share means you expect it to fall outside. The market settles once the Observatory publishes its official daily extract, which records temperatures to one decimal place.

Hong Kong's August climate is consistently warm and humid, with daily minima typically ranging between 25–27°C during the monsoon season. Historical data from the Observatory shows that August lows rarely dip below 24°C in the urban core, though the New Territories and higher elevations occasionally record slightly cooler readings. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are confident the market's temperature threshold sits above what August meteorology typically delivers—a reasonable assessment given that August is Hong Kong's warmest month and the overnight low rarely falls sharply.

The settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's publication schedule for the daily extract covering 17 August 2026. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website for any operational disruptions or delays in data release, particularly if tropical cyclones or unusual weather systems approach during mid-August. The Observatory typically publishes daily climate summaries within days of the observation date, though official finalisation can take slightly longer during peak typhoon season.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.