Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Traders holding a YES share profit if the actual peak temperature matches their chosen bracket; a NO share profits if it falls outside that range. This market uses the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground as its authoritative source, prioritising granular station data over summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, allowing for final temperature readings before the market locks.

Chengdu's August climate is characterised by high humidity and consistent heat. Historical data shows mid-August temperatures in the city typically peak between 32–36°C, with occasional extremes reaching 37–38°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability on the current implied outcome suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or are concentrated on alternative temperature brackets. August 2026 falls within the typical monsoon season for the region, when afternoon thunderstorms can suppress peak temperatures, though such events remain unpredictable at this distance.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which will provide 10–14 day outlooks for Sichuan Province. Any significant atmospheric patterns—such as cold fronts moving southward or persistent high-pressure systems—will shift expectations materially. Airport station readings can differ from urban centre measurements due to elevation and local geography, so familiarity with Shuangliu's specific microclimate proves useful. Real-time temperature data becomes available only in the final days before settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.