Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. Traders buying a YES share on a given temperature range are betting that the peak reading will fall within that bracket; a NO share represents the opposite position. The market's 0% implied probability on YES suggests the crowd currently expects the actual high to fall outside the specified range, though the range itself is not stated in the available market details.

Tokyo's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical highs typically clustering between 33°C and 37°C. Data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that August 11 specifically has seen readings of 34–36°C in recent decades, with extreme outliers rare but not unprecedented. The 2010 heatwave pushed Tokyo to 39.9°C in early August, demonstrating that whilst typical ranges are narrow, tail-risk scenarios do occur. This historical baseline is essential for evaluating whether the current market probability reflects genuine scarcity of extreme heat or simply reflects a range positioned well outside normal variation.

The primary catalyst for August 2026 will be the Pacific high-pressure system's positioning in early August, which the Japan Meteorological Agency typically forecasts three to four weeks in advance. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence seasonal temperature patterns; as of late 2025, monitoring NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index will signal whether conditions favour above-average or below-average heat. Typhoon activity in early August could also suppress temperatures, though such systems are difficult to predict beyond ten days. Weather Underground's Haneda station data remains the sole authoritative source, making measurement consistency rather than forecasting accuracy the key settlement consideration.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.