Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the temperature hits a specific bracket; a NO share pays if it does not. The resolution hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular, station-level readings rather than the summary high-low figures—ensuring precision over convenience.

Kuala Lumpur's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical records show daily highs cluster between 32–34°C, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in roughly 5–10% of August days over the past two decades. The airport station, situated in an urban-industrial zone near Selangor, tends to register slightly higher temperatures than central city monitors due to reduced vegetation and heat-island effects. Given this stability, the current 0% probability on the YES outcome suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or a specific temperature threshold that August weather rarely breaches.

The primary variable affecting resolution is monsoon activity. The Southwest Monsoon (May–September) can introduce cloud cover and occasional heavy rainfall, both of which suppress peak temperatures. Conversely, clear-sky conditions during the dry spells within August typically allow temperatures to climb toward the 34–35°C range. Traders should monitor the Malaysian Meteorological Department's forecasts in the week preceding 16 August, particularly any alerts for unusual weather systems or extended cloud cover that might dampen the daily maximum.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.