Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s afternoon peak temperature at Pudong airport is the event that matters here: the market resolves on the **highest recorded temperature** there on 24 July, and a YES share pays if that figure lands inside the specified temperature range, while NO pays if it does not. In practical terms, the market is about whether the day’s top reading clears the relevant band before the settlement window closes at noon UTC, so late-morning warming and any early-day weather shift are the key mechanics.

The current **0% YES** crowd price implies traders see that range as extremely unlikely, but Shanghai in late July is usually a high-heat period rather than a cool one. Typical July highs in Shanghai are around **32°C**, with several local guides and forecasts pointing to highs near **35°C–35.5°C** and humid conditions, which is why summer temperature bands in this market can be sensitive to even small forecast changes.[2][4][1] That said, humidity and cloud cover can cap daytime maxima, and July also brings frequent rain, so a forecast above or below the target range depends on how much sun the airport sees during the warming window.[2][4][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are the **short-range forecast updates** and any mention of showers, thunderstorms, or persistent cloud cover at Pudong. Current live forecasts show warm conditions around **95°F** with intermittent clouds and some rain risk, while nearby day-ahead outlooks also flag showers and thunderstorms in the Shanghai area.[3][5][1] Because the market settles on the airport station reading from Wunderground, the most relevant dependency is the local station’s actual midday and early-afternoon temperature path, not the broader city average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.