Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market predicts, while a NO share wins if it lands outside that range. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the predicted range, even as today’s overcast conditions show 84°F (roughly 29°C) with 83% humidity at the airport [1].

Historically, late July in Shenzhen often sees highs between 32°C and 35°C, though cloud cover and precipitation can suppress peaks. A 90% forecast chance of precipitation near the airport today indicates a likely cooling effect, which may explain the market’s low YES probability if the target range assumes a hotter, sunnier day [2]. Comparable cases from recent years show that heavy rain or overcast skies frequently keep temperatures below 31°C, creating a clear divergence from typical summer highs.

Traders should monitor hourly updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for the day’s peak reading, as well as any sudden shifts in cloud density or rain intensity. No specific announcements or schedules are pending, but the weather dependency is absolute: the market resolves solely on the recorded maximum temperature at the station. With precipitation likely, the actual high may fall below the range implied by the YES outcome, reinforcing the current 0% probability.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.