Highest temperature in Taipei on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s highest temperature on 24 July will be measured at Songshan Airport, and this market settles on the hottest reading recorded there during the day, in degrees Celsius. In plain terms, a **Yes** share pays out if the market’s chosen temperature range contains that day’s peak official reading; a **No** share pays out if it does not. The current crowd price of **0% Yes** indicates traders are assigning no visible probability to that outcome at present, though prediction-market prices can move quickly as the forecast changes.[1]

That headline price should be read against Taipei’s usual July climate, which is hot, humid and often unsettled. Independent climate guides describe July in Taipei as a month with average highs around the low 30s Celsius, frequent rain, and a meaningful chance of very warm afternoons when cloud cover breaks and sunshine builds heat through the day.[2][4] For a market like this, the relevant comparison is not whether Taipei is “hot” in general, but whether the airport station records a peak that falls inside one of the listed outcome bands before the settlement cut-off.[1][4]

A trader watching this market would focus on the day’s weather setup rather than policy or event timing, since the key drivers are forecast temperature, cloud cover, rainfall, and any late shift in wind or tropical moisture that could cap the daytime high.[3][4] Because the resolution source is Wunderground’s history page for Taipei Songshan Airport, the practical catalyst is the actual station reading rather than a general city forecast.[1] As the afternoon develops in Taipei local time, any swing towards stronger sun and drier air would raise the chance of a higher final print, while rain or persistent cloud would tend to suppress it.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.