Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet released a model officially named or designated as "Claude Mythos" to the general public. This market asks whether such a release will occur by 30 June 2026. A YES share pays out if Anthropic publicly launches any model bearing the "Mythos" designation or formally describes a release as "Mythos-class"; a NO share pays out if no such release occurs within the settlement window. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any announced Mythos product or public roadmap commitment to one.

Anthropic's naming convention has remained consistent since Claude's debut: Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus denote capability tiers across successive generations. The company has not signalled plans to introduce a new tier or naming scheme. Comparable cases in the industry—such as OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and o1 releases—typically follow announced schedules or are trailed in earnings calls or technical blogs weeks in advance. Anthropic's communication style favours direct product announcements over speculative naming leaks, making unannounced model classes rare.

Traders monitoring this market should track Anthropic's official announcements, earnings statements (if the firm goes public before June 2026), and technical blog posts for any mention of "Mythos" or new model tier designations. Recent industry practice suggests major model releases are typically preceded by developer documentation or API access phases. The absence of any public discussion of a Mythos product, combined with Anthropic's established naming taxonomy, currently anchors the low probability. Any shift would likely require explicit company communication about future product strategy.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.