World Cup Winner

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place across the United States, Mexico, and Canada from June to July 2026. This market asks whether a specific national team will win the tournament. When you buy a YES share, you're betting that team lifts the trophy; a NO share means you're betting they won't. The market resolves to YES only if that team wins the final match. If they're eliminated at any stage—group play, round of 16, or later knockout rounds—the market immediately resolves to NO. The 16% implied probability suggests traders view this particular team's chances as modest but non-negligible.

Historical World Cup outcomes show significant variance in outcomes, though traditional powerhouses dominate. France won in 2018 and reached the final in 2022; Germany, Brazil, and Italy have each won multiple tournaments. However, unexpected runs do occur: Greece reached the Euro 2004 final, and Morocco advanced to the 2022 World Cup semi-finals despite 60-1 odds. The current 16% probability sits between a genuine contender and an outsider, depending on which team this market references.

Key variables to monitor include squad injuries and player availability in the months before the tournament, confederation play-off results that determine final qualification, and any rule changes FIFA announces. Fixture scheduling and group composition, finalised in late 2025, will affect knockout probabilities. Recent managerial changes or domestic league form of key players can shift expectations. The tournament's expanded 48-team format (up from 32) creates more unpredictability in group stages, potentially affecting how far teams advance.

Methodology

We track World Cup Winner across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.