Claude Mythos released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 March 2026, a data leak exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model ahead of any official announcement. The company subsequently confirmed the model's existence and stated it was undergoing early access testing, describing it as a significant capability jump in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity tasks. This market asks whether Anthropic will formally release Claude Mythos—or a model confirmed to be identical to the one referenced in the leak—by 30 April 2026. A YES share pays out if that release occurs; a NO share pays out if the company either shelves the model, rebrands it substantially, or fails to launch within the window.

The 0% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about release timelines rather than scepticism about the model's existence. Anthropic has a documented pattern of extended testing phases before public release: Claude 3 family models spent months in limited access before wider availability, and the company typically sequences releases across multiple tiers (API access, web interface, enterprise channels). The leak itself may have accelerated internal timelines or created pressure to demonstrate progress, but compressed release schedules remain uncommon for models of this reported capability level.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements, API documentation updates, and statements from company leadership regarding deployment plans. The settlement window closes in early May 2026, leaving roughly five weeks from the leak date. Any public beta launch, API availability announcement, or explicit confirmation that Claude Mythos is now accessible to users would trigger resolution to YES. Silence or announcements deferring release beyond the window would resolve to NO.

Methodology

We track Claude Mythos released by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.