MLB: Triples Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The event is simple: at the end of the 2026 MLB regular season, this market pays out on whichever player finishes with the most **triples**. A **YES** share means the named outcome happens; a **NO** share means it does not. Because the market resolves from official season totals, the key question is not who is fastest or most exciting, but who actually stays on top of the triples table through the end of the regular season.[4][7]

A 71% crowd-implied probability suggests the market sees one clear frontrunner, but triples are a volatile category because totals are usually low and can change quickly with a few extra-base hits. Historical leaderboards show that season leaders often finish with single-digit or low-teens totals rather than anything dominant, which means the race can stay open for longer than home run or RBI markets. Current 2026 stats already show Corbin Carroll atop the field with 9 triples, underlining how a single player can create a meaningful lead in a short period.[2][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are playing time, ballpark conditions, and whether the current leader keeps logging enough plate appearances to add triples without missing games. The other names near the top matter because a hot stretch from an active runner can erase a gap quickly. Watch official MLB stat updates and any league tie-break announcements, because the market follows the official leader at season end and has explicit tie rules if players finish level on triples, batting average, or slugging percentage.[1][4][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.