Bitcoin price on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market settles on whether Bitcoin hits a specific price bracket at noon Eastern Time on 13 July 2026, measured by the final close of the one-minute Binance candle for BTC/USDT. A YES share pays out if the price meets the condition; a NO share pays out if it does not. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% for YES, the market currently expects the price to fall below the required threshold.

Bitcoin’s recent trajectory frames this near-zero probability. On 1 July 2026, the asset dipped to an intraday low of $57,800.19 before recovering to $58,904.32, marking its weakest level since the May cycle low amid “Extreme Fear” sentiment [3]. The all-time high of $126,198.07 was reached in October 2025, but prices have since corrected sharply, with July 1 levels roughly $47,430 lower than the prior year [2]. This sustained downward pressure, combined with a Fear & Greed Index of 11—the lowest of the cycle—suggests limited near-term upside momentum [3].

Traders should monitor scheduled catalysts that could shift sentiment before settlement. Key dependencies include US macroeconomic data releases, Federal Reserve commentary, and potential regulatory announcements affecting crypto ETFs or institutional adoption. While no specific July 13 event is confirmed in recent reporting, the broader correction cycle remains sensitive to liquidity shifts and risk-off flows [3]. Binance’s 1-minute candle data at 12:00 ET will be the definitive resolution source, so intraday volatility around that window is critical [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.