Bitcoin price on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market settles on the Bitcoin price recorded at noon Eastern Time on 14 July 2026, using Binance's BTC/USDT spot pair at the 1-minute candle close. A YES share represents a bet that the price will fall within a specific bracket; a NO share bets it will fall outside that bracket. If the actual price lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher range. The settlement source is live Binance data, making this a direct read on spot market conditions at a precise moment rather than a derived index or futures price.

The 0% implied probability suggests traders currently view the specified price bracket as extremely unlikely given Bitcoin's historical volatility and typical daily ranges. Bitcoin has experienced intraday swings of 5–15% during volatile periods, though calmer regimes see tighter ranges. The two-year window to July 2026 allows substantial time for macroeconomic shifts, regulatory announcements, or technical developments to reshape price expectations. Historical precedent shows that noon-specific settlement prices often cluster near daily open or close levels, though spot markets can gap sharply on news flow.

Key variables include Federal Reserve policy signals, which have historically driven broad crypto sentiment, alongside any major regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and risk appetite remains a primary driver. Technical factors—such as options expiry dates, futures funding rates, and exchange inflows—can create localised volatility around settlement times. Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendars and Binance's own operational status, as exchange maintenance or connectivity issues could theoretically affect the recorded candle, though such events are rare.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.