Bitcoin price on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the closing price of Bitcoin against US dollar stablecoins on Binance at precisely noon Eastern Time on 11 June 2026. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin's price falls within a specific bracket at that moment; a NO share pays if it falls outside that bracket or if data cannot be retrieved. The resolution hinges on a single one-minute candle from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, making this a narrow, time-specific wager rather than a broader directional bet.

The 0% probability currently assigned reflects the market's inability to forecast a specific price bracket nearly two years in advance with any confidence. Bitcoin's historical volatility—ranging from under $20,000 to over $69,000 within recent cycles—means that pinpointing a single day's noon close remains largely a matter of chance. Previous prediction markets on Bitcoin prices at fixed future dates have typically shown low conviction until weeks before settlement, as macro conditions, regulatory announcements, and macroeconomic shifts reshape expectations.

Traders monitoring this market should track major catalysts: Federal Reserve policy announcements, significant cryptocurrency regulation changes (particularly from the SEC or UK Financial Conduct Authority), and institutional adoption milestones. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and US Treasury yields has strengthened since 2023, meaning broader economic data releases and inflation reports will influence positioning. Binance's operational status and API reliability on the settlement date itself represent technical dependencies; any exchange downtime could delay or complicate resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.