Bitcoin price on June 14?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Bitcoin price at noon Eastern Time on 14 June 2026, using the closing price from Binance's one-minute candlestick chart for BTC/USDT. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin's price falls within a specific bracket at that exact moment; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that bracket or if data cannot be retrieved. The current 0% probability on YES suggests traders believe the price will fall outside the specified range, though the exact bracket thresholds are not disclosed in the market description.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at any given hour typically ranges between 1–3% under normal market conditions, though this can widen substantially during news events or macroeconomic releases. Historical precedent shows that noon UTC or ET snapshots are often less volatile than Asian market open or US cash equity open times, yet remain sensitive to overnight developments and pre-market positioning. The 18-month settlement window provides ample time for Bitcoin to traverse multiple price regimes, making the current zero probability noteworthy—it suggests either an extremely tight bracket or significant structural bearishness priced in by the market.

Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy signals, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and major regulatory announcements in the months leading to June 2026. Cryptocurrency volatility often spikes around US inflation data releases and central bank meetings. Additionally, any significant movement in traditional equity markets or geopolitical events can shift Bitcoin's trajectory substantially. The specificity of a single one-minute candle at noon ET means that even modest intraday swings could determine the outcome, making this market sensitive to both macro trends and micro-level order-book dynamics on the day itself.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.