Bitcoin price on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the final closing price of Bitcoin on the Binance exchange at noon Eastern Time on 28 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the price meets a specific condition (for example, being above a set threshold), while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the price will fall below the implied bracket.

Historical patterns show Bitcoin has swung between roughly $60,000 and $97,000 in early 2026, with an all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025 [3][7]. The sharp correction in early June 2026 was driven not by panic selling but by a disappearance of buyers, as ETF outflows rose and institutional demand weakened [5]. This demand-driven drop, rather than a supply shock, frames why the market now prices the YES outcome so low.

Traders should monitor ETF flow data, the Coinbase Premium, and Realised Cap trends, as these indicate whether demand is returning [5]. Key upcoming catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements and any shifts in capital concentration away from AI stocks, which could influence risk appetite for crypto [5]. Recent CryptoQuant analysis confirms that the return of demand will likely dictate Bitcoin’s next major trend [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.