What price will Bitcoin hit on June 19?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin is being judged here at a specific settlement time, so a **YES** share pays out if the reference price reaches the stated threshold by 5 pm EDT on 19 June, while a **NO** share wins if it does not. In plain terms, this is a wager on whether Bitcoin prints a level high enough during the market’s window, not a forecast of where it closes at the end of the day. Coinbase’s comparable event for the same time uses the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index averaged over the final 60 seconds before 5 pm EDT, which shows how tightly these contracts can depend on the exact definition of “hit” and the price source used.[5]

The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** suggests traders think the target is out of reach under present conditions. That view sits against a year of sharp Bitcoin swings: Fortune reported Bitcoin at $66,965.27 on 3 June 2026, far below its October 2025 peak of $126,198.07, while SoFi noted a 2026 range that included a January high of $97,860 and a February low of $60,074.[1][4] That history matters because prediction markets often move quickly when the underlying asset is already trading close to, or far from, the contract threshold.

For the next few hours, the main catalysts are simple market drivers rather than a fixed calendar of events: spot price moves, ETF flow headlines, and broad crypto risk sentiment. Recent market coverage has described Bitcoin trading around the mid-$64,000s on 19 June, with dominance rising and altcoins lagging, which points to Bitcoin still leading the wider market direction.[2] Traders should also watch for any late-day macro or regulatory headlines, because with a settlement window ending at 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z, even a short-lived spike around the benchmark time can decide the outcome.[5][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on June 19? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.