"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the domestic opening weekend gross of Disney and Pixar’s *Toy Story 5*, which will be measured from Thursday, 19 June through Saturday, 21 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the film’s box office will fall within a specific higher bracket (for example, above $140 million), while a NO share means you expect it to stay below that threshold. With the current crowd-implied probability at 12% YES, the market is pricing in a relatively low chance of a record-breaking debut, despite strong pre-release signals.

Historically, animated franchise debuts have shown volatility even with high anticipation. *Toy Story 4* opened to $120 million, while *Toy Story 3* reached $110 million; both were solid but not record-shattering. In contrast, *Super Mario Galaxy* recently set the 2026 domestic record at $131.7 million. Current estimates for *Toy Story 5* range from $145 million to $150 million, with some analysts pushing toward $160–$175 million following $17.5 million in Thursday previews—the biggest preview night of 2026 so far [1][3]. This suggests the 12% YES probability may be underweighting the film’s momentum.

Traders should monitor finalised box office figures released by The Numbers once the three-day weekend is confirmed, as studio estimates may shift before official data arrives. Key catalysts include critical reception trends, social media engagement, and any unexpected changes in theatre attendance due to weather or competing releases. Deadline recently noted the domestic forecast was adjusted downward from $150 million to $140 million, introducing uncertainty [4]. With the settlement window closing on 22 June 2026, timing and data accuracy will be decisive for resolving the market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.