Claude Mythos 5 access restored by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

In April 2026, Anthropic suspended global access to its advanced cybersecurity model, Claude Mythos 5, following a US government export control directive. By early July, the Commerce Department issued a narrowed directive, and Anthropic confirmed it had restored access to Mythos 5 for a specific set of US organisations defending critical infrastructure, while Fable 5 became available generally again[2][3]. This real-world resolution means the prediction market’s current 0% YES probability reflects a settled outcome where access has already been reinstated for qualifying partners, making a future “restoration” event technically impossible under the market’s terms.

A YES share represents a bet that the market resolves to “Yes” (the event occurs), while a NO share bets it resolves to “No”; in this case, the event—restoring access to at least one previously rescinded US partner—has already happened, so the market should resolve to YES unless the definition of “qualifying model” excludes the current deployment[2][6]. Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official announcements for any expansion of access to additional US clients or biomedical researchers, as the market resolves only if access is restored to a partner whose access was rescinded before June 12[2][3]. Recent updates from AWS and Anthropic confirm full restoration on Amazon Bedrock and partner platforms, with data retention requirements unchanged[3][5].

Historically, similar export control suspensions in the AI sector have been lifted within weeks once national security concerns are addressed, as seen with this narrow directive reversal[2][3]. The key catalysts now are not whether access will be restored, but whether Anthropic expands it beyond the initial set of vetted organisations, which would not alter the market’s outcome since the qualifying condition is already met[2][6]. With the settlement window ending in June 2026, the market’s resolution is effectively predetermined by the July 1 restoration notice[2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Claude Mythos 5 access restored by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.