Bitcoin price on June 2?

Market context

This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 2 June 2026. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin closes within a specific price bracket on that date; a NO share pays out if it closes outside that bracket or if data cannot be retrieved. The settlement uses the 1-minute candle close at the specified time, sourced directly from Binance's trading interface. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders believe the outcome is extremely unlikely, though the specific price bracket in question is not disclosed in the market description provided.

Bitcoin's price volatility makes single-day, single-hour predictions inherently uncertain. Historical precedent shows that intraday noon closures can differ substantially from daily opens or 24-hour highs and lows. Over the past five years, Bitcoin has experienced swings exceeding 10% within single trading sessions, particularly around macroeconomic announcements or regulatory news. A 0% probability typically reflects either an extreme price target that lies far outside consensus expectations, or insufficient trader participation to establish meaningful odds.

Key variables affecting Bitcoin's price on that date include Federal Reserve policy decisions, major cryptocurrency regulatory announcements, and broader equity market sentiment. Institutional adoption trends and geopolitical developments can also drive significant moves. Traders should monitor scheduled economic data releases in the weeks preceding the settlement date, as well as any announcements from major exchanges or regulatory bodies that might influence market positioning ahead of June 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.