Bitcoin price on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the final closing price of Bitcoin on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026. A YES share pays out if the price meets or exceeds the specified range, while a NO share pays out if it falls below; the current crowd-implied probability of a YES outcome is just 1%, suggesting traders expect the price to stay in the lower bracket.

Historical data frames this low probability against recent volatility: Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 in October 2025 but dropped to around $60,074 in early 2026, with the price on 24 June 2026 recorded at $62,651.32, down 2.78% from the previous day and 42.53% from a year prior [1][3]. This pattern of sharp corrections following all-time highs mirrors earlier cycles, where prices often retreated significantly before stabilising, making a sudden jump to higher brackets by mid-2026 less likely without a major catalyst.

Traders should monitor upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, institutional adoption announcements, and any regulatory developments affecting crypto markets, as these can trigger rapid price swings. Recent analysis from Fortune notes that Bitcoin’s price often reflects investor mood and buzz, with some models projecting values over $700,000 by 2030, though conservative estimates remain closer to $300,000 [1]. Until such catalysts materialise, the market’s 1% YES probability aligns with current downward momentum and the absence of immediate bullish triggers.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.