Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is whether the Credible public sale on MetaDAO surpasses a specific commitment threshold before its August 2026 closing date. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs, while a NO share pays out if it fails; traders buy these shares based on their assessment of the likelihood. Currently, the crowd implies a 99% chance of success, suggesting the market views the target as nearly certain to be met given the project’s traction.

Historical data from similar on-chain fundraising rounds on MetaDAO shows that institutional soft commits often anchor early demand, with public sales frequently exceeding minimum targets once curated launches go live. Credible already holds $2.315 million in soft commits from institutions, and the sale aims for $2 million to $4 million depending on demand [2]. This pre-existing capital base mirrors patterns seen in prior MetaDAO raises where public participation quickly filled the gap between soft commits and the upper cap, reinforcing the high probability assigned to the YES outcome.

Traders should monitor the official Credible sale page for the live “committed” figure, as resolution depends solely on this displayed number reaching the threshold before the deadline [1]. Key catalysts include the curated raise launch scheduled for 13 July 2026, any announcements extending the sale window, and updates on institutional participation that could push totals higher [7]. Since the market resolves to YES if the figure hits the target at any point before the settlement date—even if refunds occur later—volatility in post-sale adjustments does not affect the outcome [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.