What price will Bitcoin hit on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, Bitcoin will either reach a specific price threshold or it will not. In prediction markets, traders buy YES or NO shares to express their view: a YES share pays out if the event occurs, a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the market is asking whether Bitcoin will hit a particular price level on that single calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assess the target price as extremely unlikely to occur within the settlement window, though the exact threshold has not been disclosed in the market description.

Bitcoin's price movements are shaped by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory announcements, and shifts in institutional adoption. Historical volatility has ranged from single-digit percentage swings to double-digit moves within a day, particularly around Federal Reserve policy decisions or major exchange-traded fund approvals. In 2024–2025, Bitcoin exhibited pronounced sensitivity to US monetary policy signals and geopolitical risk events. Traders assessing June 2026 probabilities should consider whether the target price aligns with consensus forecasts for that period, which typically embed assumptions about inflation, interest rates, and adoption trajectories extending two years forward.

Key catalysts between now and settlement include regulatory developments in major jurisdictions, announcements from large institutional investors or central banks regarding digital assets, and macroeconomic data releases that shift risk appetite. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and the US dollar has strengthened in recent years, making broader market conditions a material dependency. The settlement window closes on 9 June 2026 at 04:00 UTC, giving traders a precise endpoint for price verification.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.