What price will Bitcoin hit on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event this market settles on is the exact price of one Bitcoin at 4am EDT on 26 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the price meets or exceeds the strike level set by the market, while a NO share pays out if it falls below. Currently, the crowd implies a 36% chance that Bitcoin will hit the target, meaning traders are betting it is more likely to miss than to reach it.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown extreme volatility, with prices swinging from an all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025 to a low near $60,074 in February 2026 [1][7]. On 26 June 2026 itself, the price is recorded at $59,712.62, down 1.96% from the previous day and 44.32% from a year ago [2]. This recent downward trend frames the current 36% probability as a cautious outlook, given that the asset has struggled to sustain gains above $60,000 in recent weeks.

Traders should monitor scheduled US economic data releases, particularly inflation reports or Federal Reserve announcements, which often drive sharp crypto movements. Recent technical indicators suggest Bitcoin could reach $59,689.15 by tomorrow if current trends hold, though long-term forecasts remain uncertain [5]. Additionally, institutional adoption continues to be a key dependency, with some models predicting a surge to $444,000 by mid-2026 if global money supply expands further [6]. Any sudden shift in these macro factors could alter the settlement outcome significantly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.