Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump leaving the presidency before the end of 2026, whether by resignation or removal, is the real-world event this market tracks. A YES share pays out if he ceases to be President for any period by 31 December 2026, while a NO share wins if he remains in office through that date. The crowd currently prices this outcome at just 10 per cent, suggesting traders see it as unlikely.

Historically, no US president has ever resigned or been removed via impeachment during their term. Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton and Donald Trump were all impeached by the House but acquitted by the Senate, with Trump acquitted twice in 2019 and 2021 despite majority votes to convict on some counts[2][3][4]. The 67-vote threshold for removal in the Senate has never been met, making forced removal a remote possibility absent a dramatic political shift.

Traders should monitor upcoming legal developments, including Trump’s ongoing criminal cases and any potential congressional actions. His 2024 conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records, with sentencing scheduled for November 2024, remains a key factor, though it does not automatically trigger removal[1]. Any announcement of resignation or formal impeachment proceedings would immediately resolve the market to YES, regardless of when the effect takes place. Recent reporting from the BBC notes the political sensitivity surrounding such moves, underscoring their rarity[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.