Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EYEBALLERS (-6.5) vs 3DMAX (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EYEBALLERS (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EYEBALLERS (-12.5) vs 3DMAX (+12.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EYEBALLERS (-9.5) vs 3DMAX (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
A Counter-Strike 2 match between 3DMAX and EYEBALLERS is set to take place in the XSE Pro League Group Stage on 2 July at 3:00 AM ET, with the crowd currently implying a 45% chance that 3DMAX will win. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the stated outcome—here, a 3DMAX victory—will occur, while a NO share bets it will not; both pay £1 if correct and £0 if wrong, and can be sold before settlement to lock in gains or cut losses.
Historically, when teams with a single prior meeting face off, the team that won that encounter often retains a slight edge, as seen in 3DMAX’s 1–0 record against EYEBALLERS from their only previous match[1]. Bookmakers currently price 3DMAX at 1.76 odds, suggesting a modest but not decisive advantage, while Polymarket data shows EYEBALLERS holding a 53% win rate overall (9–8 record) but trailing in this specific matchup at 42%[3]. This divergence between general form and head-to-head history helps explain why the market sits near 45% rather than a stronger favourite.
Traders should monitor official league announcements for any schedule shifts or cancellations, as a match not played or delayed beyond seven days resolves to a 50–50 outcome[2]. Recent coverage from EGamersWorld confirms the match is part of XSE Pro League 2026 and notes the bookmaker’s 1.76 prediction for 3DMAX, reinforcing the need to watch for real-time updates on team readiness or roster changes[2]. With settlement ending on 2 July at 13:45 UTC, timely information on match status will be critical before the window closes.
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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