Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is a Counter-Strike 2 Lower Bracket quarterfinal match between AM Gaming and Eternal Fire, scheduled for 24 June 2026 at 18:00 UTC in the Super DraculaN Group A, played as a best-of-three series. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the stated outcome occurs (here, AM Gaming winning), while a NO share pays out if it does not; the current 100% YES price implies the market believes AM Gaming will win with absolute certainty, a stance that warrants scrutiny given the competitive nature of esports.

Historically, 100% prices in live esports markets have rarely held when teams are of comparable skill, as seen in past Kalshi markets where Eternal Fire was initially favoured at 65% before shifting, reflecting the volatility of match outcomes[2]. Comparable cases from the ESL Pro League show that even strong teams like Eternal Fire can face unexpected overtime or losses against disciplined opponents, meaning a flat 100% price often ignores the risk of a tie, cancellation, or a delayed finish that would trigger the 50–50 settlement clause[3].

Traders should monitor official announcements from HLTLV and Gamers World for any schedule changes, team substitutions, or match cancellations, as these are the primary catalysts that could invalidate the 100% assumption[2]. The match format (BO3) and the lower-bracket pressure mean that a single map loss could alter the series trajectory, so real-time score updates via Sofascore or OXIGENtv are essential dependencies for assessing whether the market’s certainty remains justified[1][5]. Any delay beyond seven days or an incomplete match would automatically resolve the market to 50–50, a critical risk factor that the current price does not appear to account for.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.