Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Astralis and TYLOO will compete in a best-of-one Counter-Strike match during the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 tournament on 7 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Astralis will win; a NO share represents a bet that TYLOO will prevail. The current crowd-implied probability of 63% for Astralis reflects market participants' aggregate assessment of the Danish team's likelihood of victory. The settlement window closes at 18:30 UTC on the match date, meaning all trading concludes before the result is finalised.

Astralis has historically dominated European Counter-Strike, winning multiple Major titles and maintaining consistent top-four finishes at flagship events. TYLOO, the Chinese representative, typically performs well in regional competitions but has faced steeper competition at international Majors. Recent IEM Cologne results show Astralis advancing through earlier stages with conventional map pool strength, whilst TYLOO's progression to Stage 2 suggests they have overcome initial hurdles. The 63% probability reflects Astralis's established pedigree against a challenger team, though best-of-one formats introduce higher variance than longer series.

Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any late-stage substitutions announced before 7 June, as injury or visa complications could alter competitive balance. Map selection—revealed shortly before the match—will be critical; Astralis's comfort on traditional competitive maps versus TYLOO's occasional map-pool surprises could shift expected value. Tournament scheduling delays, whilst unlikely given IEM's infrastructure, would trigger the 50-50 tie resolution if the match extends beyond seven days without completion.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.