Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Aurora Gaming and 9z will face off in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 on 14 June 2026. The match is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET, with the settlement window closing at 20:30 UTC the same day. A YES share represents a bet on Aurora Gaming winning the series; a NO share represents a bet on 9z prevailing. The current crowd-implied probability of 47% for Aurora Gaming suggests near-parity, though with a slight lean towards 9z.

Both teams have competed in regional and international qualifiers leading into this Major event, though their recent form and roster stability will determine match outcomes significantly. Aurora Gaming, based in Kazakhstan, has shown inconsistent results against established South American sides like 9z, who bring experience from multiple Major appearances. Historical matchups between CIS-region and South American teams at Majors have often hinged on map pool compatibility and mid-series adaptation rather than raw individual skill disparities.

Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability or last-minute roster changes, which occasionally occur before Major matches. The ESL Pro League's official schedule and any weather-related delays affecting the venue's broadcast operations could affect settlement timing. Injury reports or stand-in players would materially shift the probability, as would any technical issues forcing postponement beyond the seven-day grace period outlined in the resolution criteria.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.