Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Aurora Gaming and FURIA are due to meet in a best-of-three playoff match, and the market settles on **Aurora** if Aurora win and **FURIA** if FURIA win. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the named outcome happens, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; here, the practical question is which team takes the series before the settlement window closes.

The current crowd-implied probability of **48% YES** suggests a close contest rather than a clear favourite. That fits the recent head-to-head signal: FURIA beat Aurora **2-0** in a previous playoff meeting at IEM Kraków 2026, with decisive map scores on Dust2 and Mirage, while Aurora dropped out without taking a map.[1][4] FURIA also reached the semi-final stage by defeating 9z in another BO3 playoff match, which reinforces the idea that this team can convert in high-pressure series.[2][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match starts on schedule, whether the official bracket and broadcast listings remain unchanged, and whether the series format stays a full BO3. Third-party match listings place the fixture on Saturday afternoon local time and identify it as an IEM playoff BO3, which matters because any cancellation, tie, or abandonment can push the market to its fallback resolution rules rather than a clean team win.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.